About a year ago, I wrote about a prediction made by Professor Johan Galtung about the future of Sri Lanka. In the field of managing conflicts, Prof Galtun is considered to be the best and the greatest specialist in the world. He stated that the manner in which things are happening in Sri Lanka is such that the country might even be placed temporarily under the control of the United Nations. Although such a happening might not benefit the country, he said, something like a temporary administration by the UN might occur if Sri Lanka fails to manage her crises wisely.
He said that he had read my article – An Unfinished Struggle – and stated that, if the judiciary of Sri Lanka had deteriorated to that extent, the other sectors of the state must surely have deteriorated to an equal or greater extent. Only a state that has failed or is going to fail can deteriorate to that extent, he said.
In a state moving towards failure, a mistake made, however serious, is not corrected. Or there is no space for correcting even the most serious mistakes made.
Although the elections commission is a statutory requirement, the elections are held in the country without an elections commission. Although the constitutional council recommended persons for the elections commission, the President refrained from giving her approval to the list of persons recommended, because one of them was not to her liking. The constitutional council examined the accusations made by the President against that person. After the inquiry, it was found that the accusations were not true and the constitutional council resubmitted the list to the President. The President again refrained from giving her approval, and a situation arose in which an elections commission could not be appointed. As a result, the elections commissioner became an official who could not retire even after reaching the age of retirement. Both the institutions that could have set this state of affairs right (the parliament and the judiciary) refrained from doing so.
After the expiry of the official term of the constitutional council, no new members were appointed to the constitutional council, for whatever reason. Later, the terms of office of the police commission and the public service commission also expired. Members cannot be appointed to those two commissions too because there is no constitutional council. Unlike the absence of the elections commission, the absence of the public service commission and the police commission precludes transfers, promotions and disciplinary action in the public service and the police. Such transfers, promotions or disciplinary action effected without the commissions would be unconstitutional and illegal.
However, this state of affairs has not been of any significance to the politicians including the head of state, the media and the people.
Although the Constitution is the fundamental law of the land, things are happening in the country contrary to the Constitution. This is not considered as a serious situation but as an ordinary and insignificant one.
The government displayed to the world the extent of its incompetence in its management of the tsunami disaster. In spite of the fact that all the money required to undo the damage that had been caused is available, it has been possible to build only 6% of the total number of houses required, although one year has passed. At the present speed, the rebuilding of all the affected houses required will take 17 years.
Apart from building the houses, the country has so far failed even to prepare a definitive list of names of those who have died or are in distress. The country does not even know how many of the dead are men or women. Although the tsunami disaster should have been an opportunity to build a peaceful, united and strong polity, the country has failed to make use of that opportunity.
The breakdown of the political party system has become speedier and is moving towards completion. The acceptance that Thondaman had in the plantations has collapsed and he has, like the Tamil National Alliance, come to the position of seeking the LTTE’s refuge.
The UNP too is in such a state of decay and feebleness that it is almost impossible to reform. A majority of its MPs seek a change in its leadership. However, those who seek a change in the leadership are not strong enough to remove the present leader. In such a state of affairs, the UNP, which may be considered the party of the bourgeoisie or the business community, will inevitably come to a state of decay as well.
The SLFP has managed to save its life with the help of state power. When it loses state power it will inevitably become a heap of fragments.
Only the JVP in the south and the LTTE in the north are still in a state of life and vigor. Historically those two movements too are performing the task of speeding the process of the state’s decay. The military campaign launched by Wijeweera to capture state power and the military campaign launched by Prabhakaran to create a separate state weakened the foundations of the Sri Lankan state and speeded up the process of weakening that state. Although only the LTTE is wielding arms at this moment, the JVP without arms is also pushing the country in the same direction as the LTTE is.
A war that will break out between the debilitated Sinhala state of the south and the Tamil state, which is on its way to come into existence in the north entirely through military strength, might put an absolute end to the very existence of both those states. A war that might emerge between these two parties in the future might take the form of a technological war, different from an ordinary war. It might, in addition to leading to the destruction of the Sinhala south, enrage the powers abroad and lead to the destruction of the LTTE too.