Sri Lanka on the brink of anarchy
Written weeks before the fuel queues turned into protests. Victor Ivan traces the fertiliser theory back to the two men who sold it, and says the country will soon be declared bankrupt.
The rough sea, sinking ship and the captain
A novice captain took the helm in the worst weather at sea. Victor Ivan reads Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s presidency that way, then turns to Geiger and the curse laid on kings in the chronicles.
The crisis and Anura Kumara
Anura Kumara Dissanayake says the JVP is ready to lead. Victor Ivan, who knows the party’s history from the inside, weighs that claim against what its violence did to the country.
Victory over the puzzle
Sri Lanka as an unsolvable puzzle. Victor Ivan names the crash and dates it — roughly a year away, before the next presidential election — and asks what could be put in place before then.
There is no cure for stupidity!
Reading the Budget, Victor Ivan finds no vision in it beyond holding on to power, and repeats that cutting imports is not a solution to a balance of payments crisis — going to the IMF is.
The rule of law
Dicey on the rule of law, applied to a president who stands above it. Victor Ivan reads the pandemic regulations and the Easter Sunday investigations as the same failure in two settings.
Pandemic and crimes
Sri Lanka had every advantage against the pandemic and squandered them. Victor Ivan reads the COVID statistics, the discrepancies in them, and a set of crimes he calls mysterious.
Playing with the crisis
Victor Ivan notes that he predicted bankruptcy three years earlier as a political analyst rather than an economist, then sets out what the import restrictions and the fertiliser ban will do next.
Redeeming the country
With the military unable to turn the wheels either, Victor Ivan calls for a common platform across the parties — and, failing that, for the Opposition to build one itself.
Dreaming of the presidency
Victor Ivan turns on the men already planning their presidential runs and asks how anyone can want the office without first proposing to abolish what it has done to the country.