ආණ්ඩුව ගන්නා පියවර දෙස විමසිල්ලෙන් බලා සිටිමු
Ranil Wickremesinghe has ordered the new Inspector General of Police, T.E. Anandarajah, to investigate an attack on journalists at a Samurdhi officers’ protest in Medirigiriya, allegedly by thugs linked to the United National Front. The piece welcomes the order but doubts it will be followed through, citing inaction over election violence and over MPs Ranga Bandara, Dilip Wedaarachchi and Ranjith Aluwihare, and over incidents involving ministers Vajira Abeywardena, Arumugam Thondaman and Mahinda Wijesekera.
දැලි පිහියෙන් කිරි කැම
Ivan likens Ranil Wickremesinghe’s rapid push for peace to a Lasker-style chess attack that ignores control of the centre, in a game with many live players, from the President and JVP to Prabhakaran, Hakeem and Thondaman. He recalls how Mandela won respect across racial lines, finds international and business conditions favourable, but warns that the Prime Minister must negotiate while the army answers to a hostile President.
විශ්වාසභංගය හා ඊට පසු
The editorial says the PA’s fall is inevitable, driven by the call for an all-party government for reform, though S.B. Dissanayake is pushing a UNP-SLFP national government instead. It calculates that even if the JVP and Sihala Urumaya abstain the government could fall with three defections, predicts that the EPDP and CWC would then back any new government, and foresees a showdown in which Parliament, like that against Charles I, could curb the presidency unless the President behaves like D.B. Wijetunga.
A game of switching friends and foes
The PA government is in political uncertainty. With a UNP no-confidence motion gathering momentum it has become suspicious not only of its enemies but of its allies, and appears to have lost the capacity to look at anything calmly or logically.
සතුරන් සේම මිතුරන්ද සැකයි
Ivan describes a People’s Alliance government paralysed by fear of a no-confidence motion. Its margin has shrunk from 37 seats before the 2000 election to nine, with no outside support, so six defections would bring it down. Thondaman, Hakeem and even S.B. Dissanayake are restive, the President accuses allies of taking LTTE money, and the Prime Minister blocked lifting the LTTE ban. The opposition must act before October, when the President may dissolve Parliament.
රනිල්ගේ අනාගතය
After the failed budget vote, Ivan argues that most UNP MPs now believe the party needs new leadership to defeat the government and form an all-party interim administration, with Karu Jayasuriya as Opposition Leader and Gamini Atukorale as party leader. He traces Wickremesinghe’s weakness to his rapid rise after the assassinations, distrust of seniors and Gamini Dissanayake’s supporters, and soft opposition, and urges him at least to give up the Opposition leadership.
රනිල් විරෝධී කුණාටුව
Ivan gives a detailed account of the UNP revolt against Ranil Wickremesinghe after a plan to defeat the budget, with Thondaman’s four votes and defectors from the People’s Alliance, collapsed at midnight. Thondaman later said he was never asked. The piece follows the group of 23 MPs led by Gamini Atukorale, Karu Jayasuriya and Rajitha Senaratne, their demand that Jayasuriya become Opposition Leader, the seven-member committee Wickremesinghe appointed, and his delay over impeaching the Chief Justice.
යළි ඉන්දියානු මැදිහත්වීමක්
Ivan assesses India’s offer to mediate if both sides ask, after it refused the President’s request for air support. India distrusts the Norwegian process, dislikes Pakistani and Israeli involvement, and will not allow outside powers to crush the LTTE, yet even its intervention seems unlikely to bring a solution before the election. He notes rifts within the Ceylon Workers’ Congress and the Muslim Congress, and emergency rules used to hobble the opposition.
Who will get the Tamil support?
The President has gone for a snap election before her term expires, hoping to win it and then to convert that into a bigger parliamentary majority. The hope depends on the first hurdle, and the first hurdle depends on the Tamil vote — which this column counts constituency by constituency.