The Prime Minister with his retinue skilfully crossed the river full of man-eating crocodiles. He has now reached the land. The group led by Ranil Wickremesinghe must have thought that the journey from there to the oasis would not be as difficult as crossing the river. Although land might seem to be a terrain in which one might move without dangers. It is in fact full of pitfalls and dangerous illusions. Sometimes crossing the land might be more difficult than crossing the river. Although there may be a timetable for the journey towards the target, if the group proceeds in the belief that the journey after crossing the river is free of danger, then this group might get destroyed while crossing the land. Although some time might have to be spent in studying the terrain properly and identifying and removing the obstacles, the aim can be reached only if those conditions are fulfilled.
The political picture of the country is extremely complex. Although the UNP has been able to win the election and take over the internal administration to a considerable extent, the executive power still in the hands of the PA. Although the President did not enter into a quarrel with the winning party immediately and has taken action to hand over the Defence Ministry, she has not transferred all the activities of internal administration and become nominal President. She has retained for herself the right to appoint persons to prominent positions. She is using her power to appoint the Inspector General of Police, the Commanders of the armed forces, the governors and the Ambassadors. She has not handed over all the institutions that come under the ministries and seeks to keep and control selected institutions.
When the opposing party came to power the presidential secretariat should have contracted proportionately, but, on the contrary, there is a speedy expansion. Some of those who lost their jobs with the triumph of the UNF and who are among her trusted colleagues are being absorbed into the presidential secretariat. The President has also started a massive media unit of her own. A large number of the vehicles which had been held by state institutions appear now to be attached to the presidential secretariat.
Although the President has surrendered a large extent of internal powers of administration, she seems to have followed a policy of keeping for herself the decisive elements of state power. When she had parliamentary power, she took hold of positions like Chief Justice, IGP and Army Commander. Although the present victorious ruling party would like to remove them from those positions which have a symbolic significance, the new government is facing the problem of how to remove them without the President’s consent. A factor that disheartens the people is that, although they had defeated a government, persons in positions of symbolic importance, whom they resent, have not changed. The President’s strategy seems to be to keep them in a position in which they cannot join the government and to use them at a time of crisis for a programme of destabilizing the government.
Although it is Parliament which has the power to control the treasury, the President’s Fund has enough funds to hold on until the coming of a crisis. It is the largest fund existing in the country apart from the treasury, and no one knows the exact balance. On the other hand the President has a special security division armed with ultra modern weaponry and the number of defense personnel in it, is not less than four thousand.
The Prime Minister thinks that in the search for a solution to the ethnic problem, it is necessary to keep the main opposition in a position of non-obstruction, and seems to think that he must be satisfied with what he has got and must function in collaboration with the President. That is what the President herself wants. She signals to the victorious party that, if it wants her co-operation it must be satisfied with what it has got and must make no attempt to curtail her powers. However, the Prime Minister has to do business not with an opposition which has been ousted from governmental power but with one which holds in its hands very vital elements of state power. The UNP did not have such power while it was in the opposition. The President, on the one hand while showing that she would not obstruct any move in search of a solution to the ethnic crisis supports behind the scenes the JVP programme against reaching a peaceful solution.
The President knows that the search for the ethnic crisis is not an easy or simple one and that moments would inevitably occur which would baffle the people. She would need just one incident which would cause deep resentment in the minds of the armed forces.
When such an occasion arises she will stand up as a heroine rising up for the honor of the armed forces and the Sinhala people. Such a rise up would push the government to a serious crisis and would weaken the government’s popular base and would frustrate the entire peace programme. If the Prime Minister fails to see this serious challenge before him and thinks only about the peaceful co-existence that should be maintained with the President, the day when the new government would be pushed to a massive crisis cannot be very far. It is essential to go on acting in cooperation with the PA as the main opposition for the purpose of reaching a solution to the ethnic crisis.
At the same time the government must not forget that the PA is not an opposition party entirely outside state power. The political conditions in the country change in accordance with incidents that occur. A co-existence with the President can be meaningful only if the government succeeds in achieving a situation in which her ability to sabotage the government’s actions can be completely controlled. For that purpose she must be made powerless, or her powers must be constitutionally controlled.