Trends in the Presidential Contest
Three weeks from the 2005 presidential election, Victor Ivan sets out what each outcome would produce. Defeat ends the political life of whichever man suffers it, and fragments his party. A Wickremesinghe victory brings immediate dissolution and a parliamentary election that would cut the JVP and Hela Urumaya down, after which Ivan expects him to seek an SLFP coalition anyway to shield his peace programme from objection. A Rajapaksa victory requires no dissolution, since the Hela Urumaya could simply be added to the Alliance — though Ivan finds him harder to read, uncertain whether he would accommodate the JVP and Hela Urumaya or pursue an agenda of his own. He then turns to the arithmetic: the Alliance’s 45.60% in 2004 falls some 500,000 votes short of a presidential majority, and its 2004 total merely preserved what the SLFP and JVP had polled separately in 2001 rather than adding to it. The UNP’s losses since 2001 match the Jathika Hela Urumaya’s gains almost exactly, making those voters decisive. And the Tamil National Alliance vote, which nearly doubled in 2004, rests with the LTTE — which may back neither candidate, in which case turnout in the north and east will fall.
දේශපාලන බීරී අලින්ට වීණා ගැයීම
The election is being held without an Elections Commission because the President has not approved the Constitutional Council’s nominees, leaving the Commissioner to act alone. The editorial notes that the Police Commission has at least curbed political interference with the police, and regrets that neither the President nor the candidates see the issue as important.
මගී ප්රවාහන සේවා අර්බුදය හා ජනාධිපතිවරණය
Transport is where the public suffers most every day, yet it is the least discussed issue of the campaign, while politicians ride in luxury vehicles at public expense. Ivan examines the conduct of private bus crews and its causes, and proposes measures including restricting container and lorry traffic in Colombo to night hours.
මැතිවරණ නීති උල්ලංඝනය
The campaign is calmer than before, but the state media’s behaviour has not changed and the Elections Commissioner has not dealt with it. Sections follow on ‘the 2005 conspiracy’, Mangala Samaraweera’s democracy, including Ports Authority money spent on his mother’s official residence, Soma Thera and the doctor branded a traitor for finding his death natural, and an assassination plot.
පොරොන්දු දේශපාලනය, දූෂණය, මැතිවරණ නීති හා ජනාධිපතිවරණය
The candidates compete in promises such as a Rs 4,000 Samurdhi payment while the country rots in corruption. The editorial gives two examples, including a large fraud reported by the Auditor General months ago and never investigated, and says a country that cannot even hold a free and fair presidential election is politically uncivilised.
ජනාධිපතිවරණයේ ප්රවණතා
With three weeks to go, Ivan argues that the winner’s side will stay dominant for a long time. If Ranil Wickremesinghe loses, his career ends and the UNP splits; if Mahinda Rajapaksa wins, he will want an early parliamentary election to weaken the JVP and the Hela Urumaya; and it is unclear what the LTTE will do with the Tamil vote.
විමල් වීරවංශ හා චන්දනසූරිය බණ්ඩාර
Under the subhead ‘Minorities within the great Sinhala nation’, Ivan argues that the Sinhala nation itself does not treat all its members as equals, contrasting two former journalists, the JVP’s Wimal Weerawansa and the UNP organiser Chandana Sooriyabandara, and pointing to India, where a Sikh prime minister and a Muslim president are no problem.
ජනාධිපතිවරණය, රාජ්ය නායකයා සහ සාමය
Every head of state since independence was elected by the people, yet all ruled like feudal kings, above the law and interfering with the courts. The editorial says change will come only when voters stop following leaders like sheep, and asks at least that the next head of state abandon the tradition of standing above the law.
ජනාධිපතිනියගේ වැඩවසම් වාදය හා මහින්ද රාජපක්ෂ
The SLFP is the Bandaranaike family’s party, a change made in Sirimavo’s time. The President agreed to Mahinda Rajapaksa’s candidacy only because she had no choice, still holds the party’s reins through nominations, and is now working for the victory of the rival candidate, Ranil Wickremesinghe.
ජනාධිපතිනියට ද කොකා පෙන්නුවේය
At last week’s Cabinet meeting the President reportedly accused the Prime Minister of conspiring with the Chief Justice to bring the election forward to 2005 and bury the tsunami-funds inquiry against him. Ivan observes that, as ticks leave a dying dog, parasites abandon a failing leader, and shows how the Chief Justice took up a petition to block the interpretation she had sought.