At the recent second reading of the budget the government was able to frustrate the UNP’s attempts at an exodus of support. The UNP’s aim was to defeat the government on the budget or to deprive them of their majority. An operation was launched in order to win over eight members of the government to their own ranks, but to no avail.
Although the opposition was able to get Wijedasa Rajapakse to leave the government party it was not able to turn it into the exodus hoped for, where government MP’s would join the opposition daily. Mahinda Ratnatillake’s crossing over from the UNP frustrated their entire plan. The hopes that the UNP had about Arjuna Ranatunga and Rauf Hakeem, too, were not fulfilled.
Although the government failed to prevent Rajapakse’s leaving the ranks, they were able still to retain the loyalty of even disaffected members. The government’s propaganda that the LTTE had lavishly spent tens of millions of rupees to defeat them appears to have frightened both Thondaman and Rauf Hakeem. In voting against the government on the budget, the JVP however had no intention of doing so in order to defeat them: they had wanted to vote against the budget because they would not be able to please their followers without such a policy. A secondary though vital reason for this precarious act was that elections would probably diminish their representation in the parliament. In the final analysis the JVP’s conduct as well as the counter offensive launched by the government had a decisive effect on the defeat of the UNP and the Mangala faction.
Therefore, since the JVP are unlikely to change their stance, the UNP and the Mangala faction can now only seek to defeat the government at the third reading. Although eight is not a substantial number, even at the third reading this will not be easy. That number would be sufficient for the purpose only if the UNP is able to retain the loyalty of all those who are already with it. There may be as much internal dissatisfaction with Wickramasinghe’s leadership as there is President Rajapakse’s. Consequently, both members of the opposition and of the government may now find themselves passing each other in the crossing.
Such crises are advantageous to the MPs. Such crises give every MP a new value. In the same way that Arjuna Ranatunge made use of the crisis that arose to get over his own grievances, the other dissatisfied MPs too will make this crisis an opportunity to get over their own grievances.
Although the government may have the greater opportunity of winning, all MPs would like to complete their terms of office without going for a mid term election. No party would like a snap poll, as this would curtail the privileges they all enjoy. The MPs of the JVP too are firmly opposed to an election. While maintaining their revolutionary appearance, they also get to enjoy their privileges as MPs. The natural desire of the MPs to complete their term of office curtails the UNP’s prospects for defeating the government at this moment.
Even if the UNP succeeds in overcoming all these limitations and succeeds in defeating the government at the third reading of the budget, it will not create conditions for an immediate dissolution of the parliament. As the government will have the right to change the cabinet and put forward a second budget, this will give greater possibility for back door dealings even after a defeat on the budget.
The soaring prices are the only advantage that the UNP has. Under the existing system of proportional representation, the UNP cannot go beyond achieving closely contested election. Even if the UNP scores an outstanding victory in spite of that disadvantage, they will have to rule again without executive power. What are they going to do thereafter? Will they give up war and go for peace talks immediately? Will the fuel prices in the world market decline just because the UNP comes to power? Will the foreign aid which has stopped resume? And these are not the only questions.Will the UNP be able to control inflation soon? Will it, in the least, be able to form a smaller cabinet? The answer to every one of these questions is ‘no’.
As a country we are in a situation where not only the system of political parties but the entire system of politics is passing from one confused state to another. And we the people face the possibility of the collapse of the entire rule of law.
If the leaders from President Rajapakse to Wickramasinghe, Samaraweera, Weerasinghe, Hakeem and Thondaman have an iota of brains, what they have to do now is not to continue competing for power on the basis of a political system that is rotten beyond redemption, but to stop their power struggle for a while and come to a consensus for wholesale change. The struggle for power can come thereafter. If none of those leaders can or will do this, then they will wind up in the dustbin of history as nothing more than jokers.