The LTTE and its leader Velupillai Prabhakaran are stuck in a quagmire and they are finding it difficult to continue their violent struggle.
However, the LTTE is in such a position not because of the strength and power of the government forces. It is a combination of external factors, chief among them being the international trend against terrorism. The government forces were surprisingly able to defend the territory in the north and gain a series of military successes after the LTTE captured Elephant Pass in April last year, not because of the strength of the army but thanks to the support extended by external forces behind the scene.
According to the old world order, armed struggle by an oppressed class or a social movement is justifiable. But, the present world order gives no justification for such a struggle.
What it means is not that all avenues for an oppressed people to get justice done have been blocked, but that new avenues have been opened for securing justice when the avenue of armed struggle has been blocked.
Among the ways available in the old world order for an oppressed people to get justice done, the armed struggle was the easiest.
Under the present set up, it is becoming increasingly difficult for any revolutionary organization to operate if they do not grasp the changes taking place in the international arena and adjust themselves accordingly. If an organization adamantly continue regardless of these positive changes, it will soon face a sorry end.
The first to adapt himself to the changing circumstances in the world and to change his path accordingly was ANC leader and former South African President Nelson Mandela. His example was followed by the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Irish Republican Army.
Had the JVP continued to follow a path of violence after the defeat of its rebellion, it also could have ended up as a movement with no future.
However, the JVP too was flexible enough to adopt democratic features in one way or the other. Now it is perhaps Prabhakaran’s turn to take the same path.
The new world order is compelling not only the movements that are fighting for some cause or the other, but also governments to change.
The capacity of the governments to suppress the just rights of minorities and other groups is getting limited.
If a ruling party follows a policy of suppressing the just rights of the oppressed, then the response it would invoke from the world community might be similar to that invoked by an organization that refused to give up the path of terrorism.
In that sense, not only the LTTE, but also the PA government also is stuck in an impasse.
The world community is extremely critical of the anti-democratic policies of the Sri Lankan government.
It is said the foreign aid flow has been severely curtailed because the donor governments were not too happy about the government’s human rights record.
Although the world community came to the government’s rescue after the fall of Elephant Pass and helped bring Prabhakaran to a position of immobility, the government too will face the same fate if it tries to crush the LTTE without finding solutions to Tamil grievances.
Military action aimed at wiping out the LTTE is only possible if the rebels continue to go along the path of violence, instead of exploring peaceful means to achieve their goals.
If the LTTE changes over to a policy of seeking a peaceful solution, then the government too will be compelled to give up the policy of giving weightage to war.
Prabhakaran may be considered a military genius though he did not come out of any military academy.
He destroyed those in the opposing camp mercilessly and did not hesitate to destroy those of his own camp when he felt it was necessary.
A person who gives weightage to violence does not understand the limits of violence. Every victory he gains through violence pushes him towards thinking that all problems big or small can be solved through violence. There has been no other leader who has been so respected by the Tamil people and who has so inspired them as Prabhakaran. At the same time, there has been no other person who has frightened the Sinhalese and has been so hated by them as Prabhakaran.
If he had not allowed his struggle for the liberation of his people to go beyond a war against an official army, that is to say if he had refrained from attacking unarmed Sinhalese, then he would have undoubtedly become a person respected by the Sinhalese.
It must be said that Prabhakaran’s inherent limitations in the matter has kept the entire Tamil national movement within narrow confines.
Prabhakaran too belongs to the same opportunist non-elite category of political leaders such as Rohana Wijeweera, R. Premadasa and Vijaya Kumaratunga. All those leaders may be considered to have been leaders who had indirectly fought against oppression in the Sinhala or the Tamil society. There were differences in the paths chosen and the ideologies adopted by them to achieve their aims, there was a similarity in these aims.
But, somewhat surprisingly, all the three above leaders leaving Prabhakaran out, have died through violence.
Vijaya Kumaratunga died in violence allegedly unleashed by Wijeweera, while Wijeweera died in violence allegedly unleashed by Premadasa. Premadasa died in violence unleashed by Prabhakaran. Now the main challenge before Prabhakaran is what path he must take in the prevailing circumstances. He has gone too far on the path of violence.
Thus it is actually difficult for him to shift to a path of peace. However, if he manages to give up, through great effort, the path of violence, he will be remembered by the world as a freedom fighter.