Whatever be the result of the parliamentary election of April 2, it can only worsen the political instability in the country rather than lessen it.
The nature of the political crisis in the country, too, is different now from that before the dissolution of parliament. Although the JVP had become the main movement representing Sinhala nationalism by the time parliament was dissolved, the strength of that force appears to have split into two with the entry of a group of popular monks from the Jathika Hela Urumaya into the fray. Simultaneously, the unanimity of the Tamil nationalist movement too appears to have divided into two with Karuna moving away from it.
What the venerable monks contesting on the Jathika Hela Urumaya ticket want to achieve is unclear. However, if they manage to win five seats, the two main parties will be left with 200 seats only. Of that number, the winner will be able to obtain less than 105 seats. Karuna’s split has caused a north and east divide in the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) too. This situation will inevitably cause a scenario in which it will be difficult for any party to form a government.
Although a situation in which no party will get a working majority will give the President an advantageous position for back door transactions, she will be able to go into such a transaction only if the Alliance will be able to become the winner in the contest. If the Alliance loses, even marginally, and a situation arises in which no party can form a government, the President will have to face a very serious accusation that she had pushed the country into a state of instability.
Conversely, even if the Alliance is able to win over the UNF, and if the number of seats it gets is 105 or less, it will not be easy to get the balanced number of seats necessary to secure a majority. Whichever party may win the election, if the number of seats the winning party gets is less than 105, the balanced number of seats will have to be sought, not from the TNA, but from other parties. In the context of the division in the TNA, no party can seek the support of Prabhakaran or Karuna. A party that seeks Prabhakaran’s support, ignoring Karuna, will have to enter into a struggle against Karuna, and a party which seeks Karuna’s support, ignoring Prabhakaran, will have to enter into a struggle against Prabhakaran.
In these conditions, it will be possible to form a government only if the two main parties combine. If the UPFA emerges the winner, the President will probably make an effort to form a government which gives weightage to the UNF but which will exclude Ranil Wickremesinghe. On the other hand, if the UNF is victorious, Ranil Wickremesinghe will be able to make an effort to get together with the SLFP and form a government which will expel the President. However, if the difference between the winner and the loser is very narrow, it will not be easy for the winner to get a supportive group from the defeated party.
The President’s plan appears to be, if the Alliance wins, to do away with Ranil Wickremesinghe and to form a government that gives weightage to the UNF. However, even that can be successful only if she is able to round up from the opposing party, a group large enough to enable dispensing with the JVP.
In any event, the time taken to cobble up a government becomes long, the country will inevitably move from one chaotic situation to another. If that weakens the economy as well as the rule of the law, and creates a situation in which no international aid will be forthcoming, then a great collapse in the economy will be inevitable. It can in turn create conditions of social chaos. Although the Prabhakaran- Karuna rift has submerged due to the elections, the post-elections political chaos can lead to clashes between these two opposing groups. Such a clash can have a destructive effect not only in the north and east but also on the city of Colombo.
It is not clear what force gives the funds necessary for Karuna to maintain his men. If that force joins the government that will be formed in the south and moves towards a policy of suppressing Prabhakaran, the consequences can be extremely destructive.
At the first round of this political crisis, the only people who appeared to be neck deep in a very serious crisis were President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. Prabhakaran was on very firm ground and was able to watch, with a smile of ridicule, the two leaders who were bogged down in the crisis. However, now Prabhakaran too is in a bogged down condition similar to that in which the two leaders find themselves; what this symbolizes is that the entire country is bogged down in a crisis from which there is no easy retrieval.