The current political turmoil is shaking not only the PA government but also the opposition parties and other groups.
In a clear bid to avoid a defeat on the no confidence motion, President Kumaratunga prorogued Parliament. She obviously wants to swing the balance during the two months she has bought for herself.
The President appears to be aiming mainly at the SLMC and trying through some means to replace some of the SLMC crossovers with PA loyalists. As an apparent cover up a referendum was brought in but signs are that it all will boomerang.
According to the constitution any matter that is referred to a referendum must first be brought before Parliament. On that basis I believe the August 21 referendum is illegal.
Even if the government wins such a referendum, the laws made on the basis of it, will have to be brought before Parliament and again put to a referendum.
When the question whether a new constitution is necessary is placed before the people, the opposition parties could turn this referendum into one which asks the people whether the PA should remain in office. If the government loses such a referendum, it could be interpreted as an end to the mandate not only of the government but also of the President.
According to the law on referendums it is not only necessary to get a majority of votes but it is also necessary that the vote polled should exceed one-third of the registered voters.
The number of registered voters is 12.4 million-thus one third of it exceeds 4.1 million. Even at the last parliamentary election the PA received only 3.9 million votes. Even if the 197,983 votes polled by the National Unity Alliance and the 50,890 votes polled by the EPDP are added to it, the total is 4.148 million. However, the UNP, the JVP, TULF and Sihala Urumaya had polled 4.232 million votes. The picture becomes still worse when the SLMC vote is removed.
The PA’s narrow victory at last year’s general election was secured in the midst of widespread allegations of violence and corruption. In a situation where the PA is fragmented, it would obviously not be able to get all those elements to function in the same manner. If the opposition is able to turn this referendum into one which brings before the people the question whether the President and the government should be permitted to continue in office and if the opposition manages to defeat the government in such a referendum, it will leave the government and the President with little or no legitimacy. Such a defeat will probably make matters worse for the PA in a no confidence motion and worse still at a subsequent general election.
Meanwhile serious questions are arising about the effectiveness of the opposition parties and their leadership.
Although the UNP is the main opposition party, I believe it has so far been able to show little by way of sound management. Bringing all parties in the opposition to a common programme, is an essential condition to defeat the government, but the UNP has so far not shown such political competence – except for the joint opposition meeting held on Friday in the aftermath of the police attack on demonstrators.
No doubt the largely sectarian outlook of the JVP has confused the government struggle. But the UNP too could be responsible for pushing JVP into such a position.
The UNP may be the biggest party, but others won’t go along with it if it takes decisions on its own. Instead if the UNP consults other parties regarding decisions, it would contribute to the dignity of the other parties and leave less room for them to act in a sectarian manner.
In a crucial and crisis situation such as what we face today, the leader of opposition has an obligation not to take unilateral or arbitrary decisions.
As for the JVP I must tell it that its sectarian attitude will not contribute to the progress of that party. The JVP’s indecision in regard to the question whether to vote for the no-confidence motion or not, confuse anti-government forces and that confusion strengthened the position of the ruling party to some extent.
What is most important to the people is not who defeats the government but whether this crisis will succeed in creating a democratic atmosphere with more democratic institutions. I believe the abolition of the executive presidency is essential for the achievement of a more democratic system, but I find that that UNP as well as the JVP are playing down that central issue.