The United National Front government is moving fast towards an agreement with the LTTE for the purpose of bringing about a solution to the ethnic crisis. Economically the country is in a state of unprecedented bankruptcy. In economic development the country has gone down to a minus growth. Although the fundamental problems of the country are various all those problems are inter-twined.
Among all these problems, the most difficult and the most complicated is the ethnic problem. Although there are other problems the country is in such a state that none of those can be cleared while the ethnic hurdle remains.
Although the country may need to continue with the war, it is not possible in the present economic state. If a solution is required, the only option available is the peace path. The political strategy of the new government appears to be, to get over all other problems by bringing about peace.
In this state of bankruptcy, the country does not have the capacity to stand up on its own without a policy of heaping burdens on the people. However, an honest and powerful attempt to achieve peace is a way of getting international wealth for the country.
The path towards peace is not easy. One little mistake could destroy the whole country. Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe does not have many optional paths from which to select. He has only one.
Although Mr. Wickremesinghe has a majority in Parliament, the presidency with executive powers is with the opposition. Although Mr. Wickremesinghe has got a mandate from the people for peace, there are also a large number of people in the country who had voted against him. While it is not possible for the UNP’ers forget easily what the PA had done against them, the people who voted for the opposition parties, too, are unable to forget all the enmities, and support the new government. The people who are divided ethnically also have contradictory expectations. The rising cost of living has also affected the attitudes of the people.
Although it is not possible to get everybody to agree to a solution, agreement of a large majority is essential. Keeping those who do not agree to a solution in a state of non-action against it, is an essential condition for a solution. The agreement of the LTTE and the agreement of the Tamil people is not adequate for a solution. The agreement of a majority of the Sinhala and Muslim people is essential for that purpose.
Although it would not be easy to have a common framework on which all can agree, that is the objective that must be realised.
In this difficult path the UNF government does not have some of the advantages that the PA government had. The PA had parliamentary power as well as the power of the Executive Presidency. The UNF has only parliamentary power.
When the PA was in power the JVP acted in such a way that although it criticised the PA it did not take decisive action against them. However, under the UNF government the JVP functions as a party that acts in co-operation with the PA.
What may happen is that the PA will not follow a policy of opposing immediately, but would get the JVP to do that job, and will rise up powerfully when an opportune moment arises.
The main contender in the race is Mr. Wickremesinghe. However, Chandrika Kumaratunga has the steering wheel.
The future of the peace process depends on how this central problem in the path towards peace, is solved. The UNF could have solved that problem if it had done so soon after victory and when the people were enthusiastic. In the path towards peace it is essential to gain the support of the opposition. It is also possible that if the steering power of the peace process is left in the hands of the lady leader for the purpose of getting support, it could end in disaster.