The President cannot contest the next Presidential election. She cannot retire from politics either. Her intention is to remain the leader of the party until an acceptable heir to the party is brought to that position. However, it is not possible for her to remain the leader of the party as a matter of course. For that purpose there should be a method through which it is possible for her to be the leader of the state or the leader of the opposition. As there is no such possibility in the present system, the President wants to change the system to suit the purpose.
Before she became the executive President she had hated the system of executive Presidency. However after being appointed to it she enjoyed to the full the privileges of Presidential power. But now, in a context in which that system is going to invalidate her, she has a great desire to change the system.
However, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe does not want any change at all in the system of executive Presidency. Ranil’s ambition is to become the executive President after letting time pass in the midst of controversies and turning Chandrika into a cipher politically.
Chandrika is aware that Ranil’s idea is to invalidate her and to become the head of state himself. Due to that reason she cannot help Ranil in his political progress. On the other hand Ranil knows that Chandrika wants to reform the system for her own survival at the top and to degrade the topmost position to which he is due to come. As a result Ranil cannot agree to any reform which Chandrika is going to introduce in the future.
Chandrika wants to get the support of the JVP to annul the political program of her rival. While Ranil is going to enlist the support of the LTTE for his own aims. The conflict between the intentions of these two leading characters might even lead to a situation where blood is shed.
Chandrika cannot wait too long. Everyday that passes reduces her validity. Although Ranil’s strategy is to let time pass to the maximum extent, Chandrika cannot be patient forever in such a context. She knows that the Prime Minister will not agree to a program of reforms that will suit her ambitions. Consequently the only option available to her now is to disrupt the progress of her rival by using the executive power which she has now in her hands. One of the simple ways she might achieve that purpose is to get the support of a group of MPs from the UNP and to change the government through a majority in parliament thus obtained. However, this is a difficult task as there is no easy way in which to cross over from one party to another.
The next option available for changing the system in order to get a solution to her own problem may be through coming into an alliance with the JVP, disregarding differences of opinion. Then she will have to dissolve parliament and test her popularity at an election. If she manages to win the parliamentary election, even by a majority of one vote, then she will have to get the support of a group of UNP MPs and, thereafter, change the system so that her own problem will be solved on the pretext of finding a solution to the ethnic problem. A majority of two-thirds will not be necessary to change the constitution. The parliament itself can be turned into a constituent assembly. It might be possible to get the support of the minorities for that program through making the finding of a solution to the ethnic crisis a prominent feature of the program of reform.
However, a mere dissolution of parliament will not be to the President’s advantage because it will be the United National Front which will have the right to function as the caretaker government at the time of election. Power of a caretaker government is an essential condition for victory at the election. It might be possible however, to dissolve the parliament in such a way as to make it possible to change the cabinet, and allow the cabinet to become a caretaker government, although it is not constitutionally correct. However, as the United National Front (UNF) has a majority in parliament it will be possible for the UNF to challenge that course of action.
Challenge will not mean going to the courts. The Prime Minister knows that in a context where Sarath Nanda Silva controls the judiciary, the judiciary will not be able to solve such a problem in an impartial manner. Consequently, what might happen is that the UNF will be pushed to a policy similar to that followed in regard to the Development Lotteries Board. Its final outcome will be, instead of an electoral contest, the emergence of a state of civil war between two power groups in the country. The final winner will be decided by the question of who has the greater strength necessary for a civil war, and also by the question of which side the institutions like the police and the army will take. The disaster that will overtake the country if pushed to such a position will not be a minor one.