A situation is building up in which the anti-government and the racist forces of the country are getting together to consolidate their act. Although the alliance between the JVP and the PA that has been mooted has so far failed to materialize, no connection has come to existence between the ruling party and the PA. As a result, those in the SLFP who are in support of an alliance between the SLFP and the JVP are becoming stronger, and the President appears to be compelled to take a step back due to their influence.
Those in the SLFP who, due to various reasons, want an early change of government, think that there must be an alliance with the JVP, disregarding whatever disputes there may be with that party. The possible consequences are of no importance to them. They believe that by establishing an alliance with the JVP, they will be able to defeat the government and soon take power into their own hands.
The JVP itself had planned to defeat the government through a course of action and added its own activity to the SLFP’s strength, to have in its own hands the reins of the resulting new government.
The President knows that although it is possible to defeat the government with the support of the JVP, the final result can be quite dangerous. Her strategy was to have discussions with the JVP for the purpose of keeping the opposition alive, but to avoid a permanent alliance with the JVP. When the JVP realized that the President was cheating them, they immediately terminated the talks on any alliance. They must have known that the forces supporting an alliance would rise against the President.
The JVP had prepared the minds of their members for a program of alliance. Since it was not something they were quite familiar with, they had to concentrate their entire program of action around that purpose and to direct their entire activity towards it. However the collapse of the proposed alliance caused a set back rather than an elation among the members who had expected an alliance. Consequently the JVP realized that the alliance had to be reactivated in some way in order to avoid a future set back. So they avoided attacking the President who had opposed the alliance, and they followed a policy of finesse that might win the trust of the members of the SLFP.
The President is now in a position similar to that faced by her father subsequent to his signing the Bandaranaike-Chelvanayagam Pact. Contrary to the trust he had established, Bandaranaike joined hands with the racist Sinhala forces and became their main spokesman for the purpose of capturing power. However, after capturing power, in the face of the problems he had to encounter, and in accordance with his old beliefs, he entered into a pact with Chelvanayagam. But, due to the pressure exerted by the racist forces which he himself had nourished, he had to tear up that pact.
Although the President is aware of the ill effects of an alliance with the JVP, she is in such a position in which she has to enter into an alliance though unwillingly, and not in a position in which she can oppose it.
Currently what Wimal Weerawansa of the JVP says is that the SLFP must change their ideas of devolution of power, and that he does not propose any other conditions. What it means is that the SLFP must be as racist as the JVP, if the SLFP wants to join hands with the JVP.
The JVP always had a racist tendency camouflaged in Marxist paraphernalia. However they did not go to the extent of collaborating with racist chauvinists. Although the JVP included in their political classes some of the ideas preached by Cyril Mathew without mentioning his name, they never collaborated with him. However the present tendency of the JVP is different. Now they are moving towards collaborating even with well-known chauvinists who stand for racism. Now the JVP is considering giving up their usual red flag to take up the lion flag.
The ability to control forces within society is gradually slipping from the government’s hands now. Ranil Wickremesinghe’s assessment had been that he would be able to march forward triumphantly, even without entering into a wide discussion about reforms in the state machinery. His expectation appears to have been that in as much as he and his government have been able to go on with their activities, despite the demonstrations in protest, and the opponents had not been able to stop them, the future consequences would be unstoppable. Thereby the Prime Minister followed a policy of waiting in silence while allowing the racist forces to have their own way. His attitude appears to have been that, as the President will lose her credibility after the next Presidential Election, the reforms necessary should not be discussed immediately.
Consequently things are occurring in the country in such a manner as to strengthen racist forces. This not only poses a danger to the survival of the government, but might even create a situation that will jeopardize the entire peace process. The result of a change of government might be that the Tamil people will get the opportunity to solve their own ethnic problem, but the south will collapse into an impasse akin to that of the north. Its final result might be that there will be an independent north and a bleeding south.