In the light of the present political crisis, the need to form an all-party government dominates the political discourse these days.
But on a parallel plain, the idea of forming a two party government — a PA-UNP dictatorship of sort — is also being floated.
The chief spokesman of this idea is Minister and SLFP General Secretary S. B. Dissanayake.
The prime objective of the no-confidence motion against the government is to form an all-party government and then set up four independent commissions for elections, the police, the public service and the judiciary.
However, these aspirations of advocates of good governance and democracy will not be fulfilled if the two major parties move towards forming a national government of dictatorial type.
In any event, the passage of the no-confidence motion against the government depends on the support of the JVP and even on the sole Sihala Urumaya vote. These two parties are yet to make their stand known in unambiguous terms.
If the 11 MPs of the JVP and Sihala Urumaya refrain from voting and all other MPs use their votes as members of the government and of the opposition, the government will be able to defeat the motion by a majority of five votes. But, even in such a situation, the opposition will need only three votes from the ranks of the government to defeat the government. If that happens the number of votes the government gets will be 106 and the opposition’s vote will be 107. This means that even if the government succeeds in keeping the Sihala Urumaya and the JVP away from voting, there is a greater possibility of the government being defeated.
It is expected that a speedy and revolutionary change in the entire picture will start with the government’s defeat at the no confidence motion. Although parties like the EPDP and the CWC which now remain with the government will back the new government for reasons known to the EPDP, will have to collaborate with any government that comes to power for its security while the CWC strategy had been to back the government and win its demands.
The most important question that arises next is how the MPs of the PA will act in the event of the government’s defeat at the no-confidence motion.
No MP likes a dissolution of parliament. Nor does the President like the emergence of a government outside her control. She can avoid such a scenario only by holding on until Parliament completes one year and then dissolving it immediately.
A decision to dissolve parliament could give rise to a conflict situation with MPs opposed to such a move challenging it. It could even assume the nature of a conflict between parliament and the executive, and one of its outcomes might be the debilitation or the end of the system of executive presidency.
In this conflict, a situation will inevitably arise in which a majority of Parliament will rise against the President, in the same way that Parliament rose against the interim injunction of the Supreme Court. It is that struggle that will determine the shape and the internal constitution of the government that will come into existence.
As a means of solving the present crisis, the President could resort to the prorogation of parliament and then dissolve it after it completes one year.
However, if parliament wants, it can also act in defiance of the President’s moves, in the same way the British parliament rose against King Charles I. The President’s popular mandate is only 51%. However, the mandate of Parliament is 100%. It was Parliament which created an executive presidential system. It is Parliament which has the power to abolish it, if necessary. This conflict which is emerging between the parliamentary system and the Presidential system might end either with the disappearance of the parliamentary system and the rise of a harsh dictatorial system or the disappearance of the executive Presidential system and the confirmation of the sovereignty of parliament.
However, that conflict certainly will give a new dynamism and a new dimension to democracy.
There is a way in which such a conflict can be prevented. For that purpose the President must become a D. B. Wijetunga. That is to say, she must protect her presidency by bowing to majority power and allowing those with majority power to form the government they wish. That is the best decision to be taken in the current situation.