Rates of the vote of winners at parliamentary elections which saw a change of government.
Total vote obtained As a % of the total valid vote Rate of growth
1956 Election
1. SLFP’s vote at 1952 Election 361250 15.5
2. At 1956 Election (MEP) 1046277 39.5
3. Difference in 1956 in relation to 1952 24.0
1970 Election
Vote obtained as a % of total valid vote Rate of growth
1. SLFP’s vote in 1965 1221437 30.2
2. At 1970 Election (United Front) 2442402 49.0
3. Difference in 1970 in relation to 1965 18.8
1977 Election
1. 1970 UNP’s vote 1892525 37.9
2. 1970 Election 3179221 50.9
3. Difference in 1977 in relation to 1970 13.0
1994 Election
1. 1989 SLFP vote 1785369 31.9
2. 1994 (United Front) 3887823 48.9
3. Difference in 1994 in relation to 1989 17.0
Rates of the vote obtained by the winner who wins again at elections where no change of government is effected.
Vote obtained As % of total vote Rate of decrease
1960 July Election
1. 1956 Election MEP Vote 1046277 39.5
2. 1960 Election SLFP 1022171 33.6
3. Difference in 1960 in relation to 1956 5.9
1989 Election
Vote obtained As % of total valid vote Rate of decrease
1. 1977 UNP vote 3179221 50.9
2. 1989 vote 2838005 50.7
3. Difference in 1989 in relation to 1977 0.2
2000 Election
1. 1994 PA vote 3887823 48.94
2. 2000 vote 3900901 45.10
3. Difference in 2000 in relation to 1994 3.80
A common pattern can be observed in the number of votes a ruling party obtains is reelected and an opposition party gets when it is elected to office.
On every occasion when a ruling party wins an election, a decline in its vote base is observed. This phenomenon also means that when an opposition party wins, there is an increase in its vote bank.
The SLFP which obtained 15.5 percent of the votes at the 1952 parliamentary election was elected to office in 1956 with 39 percent of votes — an increase of about 24 percent.
Again in 1970, the opposition SLFP which got 30.2 percent of votes in 1965, got 49% when it was elected to office, contesting as a United Front — an increase of 18.8 percent.
The UNP got 37.9 percent of votes and lost the 1970 elections, but it was elected to office in 1977 with a massive 50.9 percent of votes — an increase of 13 percent.
In 1989 the SLFP which failed to win the elections that year got 31.9 percent but when it won the election in 1994 it obtained 48.9 percent an increase of 17 percent.
It has been a general rule that when a ruling party loses, the victorious opposition records a substantial growth in its share of the vote.
On the other hand, when a party in power is re-elected, there is a decline rather than a growth in its vote base.
The SLFP which came to power in 1956 was reelected to office in July 1960. But its vote base declined from 39.5 percent in 1956 to 33.6 in 1960.
The UNP which was elected to office in 1977 with 50.9 percent of votes obtained 50.7 percent at the 1989 elections. Though the declined was a mere 0.2 percent, the manner in which the elections were held makes one to assume that this figure would have been much lower if the elections had been held under normal conditions.
The PA which was elected to office in 1994 with 48.9 percent of votes obtained 3.8 percent fewer votes when it was re-elected in 2000.
Psephological studies show the average growth rate in vote base for an opposition party that is elected to office is a staggering 18.2 percent.
The average decline in the vote base of a party in office when it is re-elected is 3.23 percent.
This analysis suggest there will be a decline in PA vote base. This decline coupled with the withdrawal of the SLMC and the CWC support points to a PA defeat.
On the other hand, there should be an increase in UNP vote base and this coupled with the support it gets from the SLMC and the CWC, we can assume the United National Front is likely to win the December 5 elections, provided there is no mass-scale vote rigging.
As the average gain in vote base for an opposition party coming to power is 18.2 percent, we can assume the UNP will win the election. This may be the case even if the growth rate is ten percent — a 50 percent of votes cast. In this event the PA’s share will be around 35 percent with other parties accounting for 15 percent.
Then the share of the seats which the parties will get is as follows:
United National Front 124-126 seats, the PA 74-76 seats and all other parties 25 seats.