Although the voters may be shown a different picture, what has become the central factor controlling the great or unfortunate happenings that might follow the pushing of the country to an election is the conflict between the contradictory aspirations of the two leading characters. While President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s desire is to change the system at whatever price in order to prevent her own invalidation; Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s hope is to become the President after invalidating Mrs Chandrika Kumaratunga by defending the system at whatever cost.
The signal sent to the Prime Minister by the President by her taking over three ministries (which had been under him) was that he should help her solve her problems if he wanted to continue with his administration. After the President realized that even if the Prime Minister agreed to hold discussions with her and agreed with her on any other matter he would not agree to what she expects, she converted the temporary agreement she had arrived at with the JVP into a permanent agreement, and thereafter dissolved the parliament.
It is not without knowing her intentions that the JVP have come into an agreement with the President. They did so because of the great advantages that would accrue to them from it, whatever be the consequences of it to the country.
The main factor that had determined the path of politics during President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s period of office as President was the conflict between these two leaders. It is clear that from the start of her presidency, she manipulated politics with the idea of preventing her political invalidation after the expiry of the two terms of office to which she was entitled. Even President JR Jayawardene, a political leader who did not lack shrewdness, failed to select the significant days when he contested for presidency for the second time in such a way as not to shorten his period of office.
However President Kumaratunga was able to make a shrewd calculation in that respect. President JR Jayawardene took his oaths for the first term on February 4, 1978. If the second presidential election was not held in October 1982 but on a date subsequent to February 4, 1983, like February 10, and if the oaths were taken on February 4, 1984 instead of on February 4, 1983, he might have been able to complete the period of 12 years that the two terms gave him. However, because he made no such shrewd calculations, he got only ten years for the two periods of office, instead of 12.
However Mrs Chandrika Kumaratunga appears to have made a shrewder calculation in selecting the dates than JR Jayawardene. She took her oaths for her first term of office on November 12, 1994. If the presidential election was not held in December 1999 for her second term of office and was held in October of that year instead, she would have had to take her oaths on November 12, 1999 for her second term of office. She held the presidential election in December with the intention of taking oaths on November 12, 2000. Consequently she will have the right to enjoy her 12 years of office with no reduction.
However, unfortunately she had to take her oaths on December 21, 1999 instead of in November 2000 due to the bomb blast she faced. She tried to state that she took her oaths in secret in November 2000 for the second term of office in order to avoid the damage caused by the erroneous taking of oaths.
Before the contest for her second term of office, the President appointed an individual of her choice to the post of chief justice. After the presidential election was announced, she appointed an amenable outsider to the post of elections commissioner in place of the incumbent who had fallen ill, without appointing the officer next in seniority. Both these appointments might be considered improper, and made for the purpose of successfully carrying out the program that she had planned in order to ensure her will and prevent her invalidation after two terms of office.
However, Mr Ranil Wickremesinghe did not take steps to challenge them seriously. He seems to want to allow her to enjoy both of the two terms of office and to get her invalidated so that he could replace her thereafter. Mr Ranil Wickremesinghe does not appear to have changed that strategy thus far.
The President didn’t want to have parliamentary elections soon after the presidential election because she wanted to get her program for avoiding her own invalidation…