With the crisis between the President and the Prime Minister becoming insolvable, the country is drifting towards a parliamentary general election. However, such an election might make a solution more difficult instead of making it easier.
If there had been an alliance between the JVP and the PA at the last general election, that alliance would have captured the districts of Gampaha, Kalutara, Matale, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, and Ratnapura. The six districts of Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Puttalam, Badulla, Kegalle, and Trincomalee would have gone to the UNF. The Digamadulla would have gone to the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) which had an alliance with the UNF, while the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) would have won the three districts of Vanni, Jaffna and Batticaloa.
No Party will be able to form a government on its own without the support of the Tamil representatives elected from the north and east, whatever party it may attempt to ally with for the election.
On the basis of these results, neither of the two main parties would have been able to form a government without the support of the Tamil representatives of the north and east. In a future parliamentary general election, this picture will inevitably change to the disadvantage of those two parties.
At the last parliamentary general election, the Tamil parties including the TNA obtained 18 seats from the north and east in conditions where 100,000 Tamil people were prevented from voting. In the next parliamentary election, the LTTE will inevitably work to get the maximum possible number of seats for the group that will contest with its blessings.
Thus the results would have been as follows:
PA-JVP Alliance
Seats on district basis 89
National List 14
Total 103
United National Front
Seats on district basis 86
National list 14
SLMC 04
Total 104
Tamil parties of north and east
Seats on district basis and national list
TNA 15
EPDP 02
DPLF 01
Total 18
In such conditions it might be surmised that the number of Tamil representatives elected will go up to 22 or 23. That result will bring down the number of seats the SLMC and the UNF obtains from the north and east. Then all other political parties will be left with 202 or 203 of the 225 seats.
After the system of Proportional Representation was introduced, it was at the October 2000 election that the UNP got its worst results. There the party obtained a total of 89 seats with 77 seats on a district basis and 12 on the national list, in spite of the fact that its voter ratio had dropped to 40%. Even if it is considered that the number of seats that the UNF obtains under the worst of conditions will be 92, the Tamil parties of the north and east will get 22 or 23 seats while all the other parties will be left with 110 or 111 seats only. This shows that no party will be able to form a government on its own without the support of the Tamil representatives elected from the north and east, whatever party it may attempt to ally with for the election.
The biggest problem that will arise next is whether a government formed with the help of Tamil representatives elected from the north and east will be able to negotiate with the LTTE in a manner that will be trusted and respected by the people if those representatives are direct or indirect representatives of the LTTE. The next election will inevitably lead to a worse stalemate than the present stalemate.