The MoU the government has reached with the LTTE is about to complete one year. Although no bloodshed has occurred during this period, the capture of a boat with anti-aircraft weapons and the committing of suicide by three persons involved, show that the LTTE has not given up its preparedness to a sudden shift of war if that becomes necessary.
It must be that the talk about a sudden dissolution of Parliament for a snap election has created uncertainty in the LTTE about the ongoing peace talks. Anton Balasingham too had expressed his views about it several times earlier. They do not trust the President.
The common agreement program, which the President is in the process of arriving at with JVP which acts on a hard racist and anti-Tamil stand too, might be sharpening the feelings of uncertainty which are in them. It is logical for them to think that they should stand steadily in order to face the situation if the PA comes to power and wages war against it.
If a war breaks out again for whatever reason, that war will inevitably bring unprecedented and destructive consequences. A Parliamentary election held at this time, too, will inevitably be like a contest of death between the two main contestants waged in disregard of the law, rather than as a peaceful and law abiding affair. As a result, if a snap election is held, Prabhakaran’s war too will start only after the country is exhausted and collapses into a state of anarchy through a mad struggle between the political cohorts of President Chandrika and Prime Minister.
In the present bilateral system of power the executive power is with the President who is the leader of the present oppositional movement. The governmental power is with Ranil Wickremesinghe of the UNP which has a majority in Parliament. Consequently it is natural for Ranil Wickremesinghe to opt for not holding a Parliamentary election. It is also natural for the Prime Minister to think that he must win somehow or other if an election becomes inevitable.
Although Chandrika Kumaratunga is the Executive President, she does not have the power now to administer the country because she does not have a majority in the Parliament, it is also natural for her to take action for the purpose of getting back that power with the help of any one whatsoever.
However, it looks as if there is no possibility at all for that contest to happen in a peaceful and free environment. The President knows that if the UNP is permitted to keep the powers of caretaker government, it will use that power to the maximum to win this election as it had done before. Consequently, if the Executive President goes in for an election, she will inevitably employ any strategem to retain caretaker governmental power in the hands of her party.
And the Prime Minister on his part will rise viciously against any attempt of the President to snatch from her the powers of a caretaker government which should be rightly his as long as he has a majority in Parliament. The election campaign will start with a mad struggle for the purpose between the two parties. Although a long time has passed since the enactment of the elections commission law, the independent elections commission and the independent judicial commission have not been established so far. An election held in these conditions will inevitably become one in which the law of the jungle rules.
Whatever party might win in such a dreadful environment, the winning party will secure that victory not through the ballot but through the strength of the arms. Any government that emerges in such conditions will not have the possibility of appearing as a democratic government.
The central question that should receive the undivided attention of civil organizations and the business community which favor human freedom and peace at this decisive moment is, if a contest is inevitable, how to prevent that contest becoming a violent one, and how to prevent a destructive war of a massive scale, whoever might win at the election. The destructiveness inherent in this contest can be obviated by reaching a consensus along with a determination of a time for an election, and by arriving at a consensus on a policy that should be followed in regard to the ethnic issue, whichever party might win at the election.
Although the UNP has got Parliamentary power, there is dissatisfaction in that party too about the smallness of the number of seats it has got. What torments the PA and the JVP is a dissatisfaction about the lack of a majority. If both parties are willing to have a test of strength, a consensus can be reached on conditions that would turn that contest into a civilized contest. Both parties must be pressed nationally and internationally for such an agreement.
The points on which there should be agreement in order to ensure such a situation are as follows:
1. Determination of dates for a Parliamentary election.
2. A consensus must be reached about reform in the system of elections (a system like the German system which is a combination of the ‘first past the post’ system and proportional representation system).
3. Identification of basic principles for a non-military solution to the ethnic issue, and reaching a consensus for the purpose of proceeding with the program of discussion that has begun now, whatever party might come to power.
4. An umpiring institution functioning in a fair and impartial manner is essential not only for the electoral contest but also for the purpose of proceeding successfully with the subsequent peace talks, reaching a consensus on reforms that must be effected immediately for clearing the present mess in the judiciary and for establishing a judiciary that will be respected and trusted by all.
5. Identification of the principles for and reaching a consensus on a new constitution that might bring solutions to the ethnic crisis in the country and to the crisis of democracy in such a manner as to enable the inclusion of agreements reached with the LTTE after discussions with it.
6. Reaching a consensus on correcting the mistakes and eliminating the shortcomings of the 17th Amendment to the constitution, and establishment of the independent elections commission and the independent judicial service commission without delay.
7. Reaching a consensus on a caretaker government structure so that no party will be able to use state power at the elections.
8. Reaching a consensus on forming an all party government for a period of five years for the limited purposes of establishment of a new constitution, arriving at a peaceful solution to the ethnic issue, and reorganization of the country in a positive manner.
9. If such a consensus can be reached among the political parties for an election, the Parliamentary election that might cause a very great destruction in the country can be turned into a starting point for a journey that will bring great benefits to the country. Its final meaning is that there should be, between the government party and the opposition parties, an agreement like the one that has been reached between Prabhakaran’s LTTE and the government party. However, such a thing cannot happen spontaneously. It can happen only if there is massive pressure on both the government and the opposition parties nationally and internationally.