More than two months have passed since the general election, but the government has not been able so far to secure 113 seats in the parliament. The government has had to finally give up hopes about CWC leader Arumugam Thondaman joining them. The possibility of securing stability through obtaining the support of the Tamil National Alliance, too, has been lost due to the firm policy being followed by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) about the LTTE.
The government had been able to cause a split in Rauf Hakeem’s Muslim Congress and in the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), and to win over three MPs from the Muslim Congress and two MPs from the JHU. However the position and the stand of those five MPs are not stable and under the existing system it is not possible for MPs to shift from one party to another.
Although there are serious rifts in the UNP, it is not possible for the government to enroll any MPs from the UNP too as long as there is the proviso which deprives the MPs who change their party loyalties their positions as MPs. It is only the bhikkhu MPs of the JHU who are not affected by the rule of losing their positions as MPs when they change their party loyalties. As they came to contest parliamentary elections without framing a constitution, there is no possibility of taking disciplinary action against those who change their party loyalties until a party constitution is framed. However, any program of utilizing this chaotic situation and drawing bhikkhu MPs out of the JHU, will inevitably force the JHU bhikkhus into action in anger and emotion. At the same time, there is no possibility of winning over from the JHU all the MPs required to reach the target of 113.
The government cannot handle anything else until it reaches the target of 113. On the other hand, there is the danger of the government being defeated at any time before that target is reached. One of the intentions that the President had when she dissolved the parliament in spite of the majority the former government had in parliament was to abolish the existing constitution and to introduce a new one. However due to the government’s failure to prove its majority in parliament, the government has been compelled to repeatedly postpone that project. The introduction of a new constitution, even in the most arbitrary manner, cannot be done in such a short period as one month. It would take some substantial time. Anything that is done has to be done before the next presidential election. The time available is a mere period of 14 months. Of the time that was available, three months have already passed. If more time has to be spent for the purpose of reaching the target of 113, the project might have to be abandoned altogether.
The economic difficulties the people had might be considered the biggest factor that contributed to the UNF Government’s defeat. The people felt that although the war had stopped and a peaceful atmosphere prevailed, they had reaped no benefits of peace. Despite corruption or irregularities, the UNF Government had followed to the letter the directives of the World Bank, and the economic process had been turned towards a path of strength. Although the business community had felt the change, the ordinary people had received no immediate benefits, and frustration had built up among those people due to economic difficulties.
The UPFA not only used that frustration quite skillfully to their advantage, but also assured the people that it would create an economic background that would bring a beneficial change into their lives. However the Alliance Government is now in such an impasse that, quite apart from fulfilling the grand promises given, it is unable even to ensure that the people would continue to get what they had been getting. The political instability prevailing in the country is having a destructive effect on the economy of the country, and the increase in the price of oil in the world market has increased further the debility in the economy.
When the quota system available to the garment industry ends at the end of 2004, there will be an inevitable breakdown in the garment industry which functions as the backbone of the present economy. The income from the export of apparels represents 60% of the entire income from exports. If the abolition of the quota system affects the garment industry to an extent of 30%, the country will inevitably be pushed again towards a negative economy for a certain period, even if the country succeeds in maintaining sound activity in all other sectors.
If that is going to mean that 100,000 in the local garment industry and 50,000 garment workers employed in the Middle East will lose their jobs, it will affect in a destructive way, not only the economy of the country, but also the social life of the country. At a time when a greater part of the loans and assistance Sri Lanka normally receives is tied to the progress of the peace process, the economic picture of the country will be grimmer if the country ceases to get what it has been getting. Such a difficult economic environment will inevitably create a situation in which the Alliance Government and the people clash.
The coming political crisis will affect more decisively, not the SLFP, but the JVP which has become a giant while turning the SLFP into a dwarf. The JVP at the first round exhibited its skills quite well. It was able to trap and to defeat the UNF Government, and at the same time to retain the fame of that triumph in its own hands, without allowing the SLFP to share in it.
However, the JVP, after coming to power, has not been able to display a maturity that goes beyond a clean and simple lifestyle. It was the JVP which took on itself the task of rescuing the country. The people too believed that the JVP would rescue them as well as the country. However the JVP has not been able to thus far show the people that it has the political maturity required for the purpose of fulfilling the hopes that the people had in it. In this situation the fate of the JVP might perhaps become more tragic than that of the traditional left.