The tsunami can become a political tsunami 

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February 1, 2005
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A month on from the tsunami, Victor Ivan warns that mishandling the recovery could produce a political tsunami destructive to the government and the opposition alike. He attacks the 100-metre coastal buffer imposed by TAFREN: damage reached 400 metres inland at Telwatta and in Galle town while some houses at the water's edge stood untouched, so the rule bears no relation to where the danger actually lay. It also bites only on the unlucky — those whose houses survive may stay, those whose houses were destroyed may not rebuild — and leaves the displaced waiting in camps for a house in a location of the government's choosing, or buying land themselves. Pacific nations facing the same hazard do not clear their coasts, relying on warning systems and tsunami-resistant construction instead. Ivan argues that resettlement without consent breaches both UN policy on the displaced and the constitutional protection of private property, and sets out an alternative: let landowners rebuild where they lived, give them the per-capita sum the government would have spent, extend credit to ruined businesses, and revive economic life quickly.

If the country fails to manage the disaster that has oc- curred, if no action is taken to make it an opportunity to rebuild the country, the consequences can be quite disastrous. It can in fact lead to a political tsunami, which will have destructive effects, not only on the government but also on the entire political system, including the op- position. 

Although the destruction caused is quite massive (lead- ing to the death of nearly 50,000 people and displacement of well more than 100,000 others), it has not led to a positive change in the political thinking of the country. The political leaders still think in the old accustomed ways. The tsunami has not even made them feel that they must get together and act unitedly at least for a certain period. Even the government does not appear to act in unanimity, to say nothing about a common national political unity of intent. 

The plans prepared by the TAFREN, set up by the Presi- dent to overcome the crisis, are not only idealistic, but may even cause conflict between the government and those afflicted, due to the forceful manner in which the plans are going to be implemented. 

All the plans have been framed as if the tsunami is a daily occurrence rather than something that might happen once in several centuries. 

According to the rules introduced, rebuilding of hous- es or buildings destroyed within 100 meters from the coast is prohibited completely. The people affected must wait in the camps until the government gives them a house in a locality of its choice. Or they must purchase at their own cost a land at some other location and build a house there. 

Even under this law of a limit, that law does not affect the owners of the undamaged houses. Such fortunate people can continue to live in those buildings, while only the unfortunate whose buildings have been completely de- stroyed have been prohibited from going to such places for residence. 

There is no uniformity in the distances at which the damages have occurred. It is observed that in areas like Telwatta and the Galle town, damages have occurred as far away as 400 meters from the coast. On the other hand, in the same zone, some houses and buildings almost on the edge of the coast are unaffected. If the purpose of the 100-meter limit is to prevent loss of life, then it should be dangerous to permit the owners of the undamaged houses and buildings to remain there. On the other hand, even the 100-meter limit cannot be considered adequate to safe- guard lives. 

Even the countries of the Pacific zone, ne, where a threat of tsunamis exists, have not followed a policy of displacing people from the coast. Loss of life can be minimized by a system of warning signals, while the loss of property can be minimized by putting up buildings that can withstand tsunamis. 

The only wealth that many of the distressed are left with is their block of land. A policy of depriving them of that too will push their lives into a state of greater uncertainty. On the other hand, resettlement of the displaced without their consent is not only against the accepted policies of the UN on resettling the displaced, but is also a contravention of the principle of ownership of private property as found in the constitution. 

The rule imposed by the government on the distance from the coast compels the people to wait in camps until the government does everything for them. This has also limited the possibility of reviving economic activity in the stricken areas. 

If public life and economic activity of these areas are to be revived:

  1. The policy of considering the sea as a demon must be given up.
  2. All those with their own land and who wish to build houses and start businesses in the places where they had resided formerly, not the squatters, must be permitted to build new houses and buildings. They must be given as aid the per capita sum of money planned to be spent by the government to purchase land and to build houses, and schemes must be formulated by which they can obtain bank loans on easy terms.
  3. The government must build houses for the unauthorized in such a way so as not to disturb their traditional livelihood.
  4. The businessmen who have sustained damage in this zone must be provided with the necessary funds and credit facilities to start their businesses again.

In the final analysis, a political tsunami situation can be prevented only if the country succeeds in reviving quickly the public life and economic activity of the stricken areas.