The only way that was available to the government to solve its problem of the lack of a majority in parliament and the lack of sufficient aid to continue governmental work successfully was to resume peace talks.
If the government had succeeded in commencing peace talks, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) would have had to support the government, at least externally. In that case it might have been possible to easily solve the problem of the lack of a majority, and thereby the government would have been able to obtain the aid package that had been allocated to Sri Lanka by the international community, and to get over its economic difficulties.
However, the JVP is not prepared to permit such a course. Although their stand might be wrong, it cannot be called an incorrect one in view of the promises given by them to the country. They had promised the people that they, the JVP, would not allow a discussion of the interim proposals, and would not permit Norway to play its role.
The SLFP too condemned the peace program because that party wanted to enter into a general agreement with the JVP and because devaluing of the peace program that the UNP Government was pursuing was an essential condition for defeating the UNP. Consequently the SLFP had to describe the program as a treacherous plan to grant a separate state to the LTTE.
Although the support of the JVP at that moment was essential for the purpose of defeating the UNP Government, the President now finds herself in a position in which she cannot continue with the JVP in the government.
The President knows that it is essential to resume the peace talks if the government wants to overcome the two main challenges it faces and to move ahead, whatever she may tell the people about the talks.
However the JVP is not prepared to allow the government to follow such a course of action. Nor can the President abandon the JVP and move forward with the UNP. Although the SLFP has become the government party thanks to the alliance with the JVP, the SLFP has a lesser number of MPs now than the UNP. Consequently, if the SLFP and the UNP get together and form a government, the dominant partner will be, not the SLFP, but the UNP. Even in a context in which the UNP is not made a direct partner but becomes a supporter from outside, the UNP will be able to bring down the government whenever it chooses to do so. The President cannot welcome such a prospect.
The decisive factor that led to the President’s dissolution of parliament despite the fact that the UNP had a majority was her desire to change the constitution in such a way as to prevent her own political invalidation. However what has now arisen is a situation in which even that plan cannot be implemented. There is a group in the government party itself who do not like a change in the system. There does not appear to be any great interest in it now in the JVP group.
The government is finding itself in an impasse. The JVP is not prepared to permit the government to move forward in disregard of the JVP’s own expectations. The President has no way in which to overcome this situation and the JVP has no alternative in which they can provide dynamism to the government. They have only the idea of continuing in the same manner, whatever happens.
Due to the lack of a parliamentary majority, the UPFA Government has been pushed to a policy of granting concessions to the people, disregarding the available economic potential, for the purpose of keeping the public opinion with it until it extricates itself from the deadlock. That policy has led to an aggravation of the chaotic situation in the economy. Inflation and the interest rate are rising due to the particular eagerness shown to collect money through Treasury Bills. This situation is discouraging investments and consequently the value of the rupee is evaporating.
The special representative of Norway, Vidar Helgesen, has compared the war to a frozen iceberg and said that it is melting now due to the collapse of the peace talks. Although there will not be an immediate war, it will not be possible to maintain a no-war situation without peace talks.