The Government has interfered in a conspiratorial manner in the opposition-controlled
Southern Provincial Council purely in order to unseat the incumbent Dodangoda and to
entrench M. S. Amarasiri in the Chief Minister’s chair, and not out of any altruistic motive to
institute provincial council elections. However, the Government was unable to successfully
manipulate its conspiracy to its logical conclusion. As the plan came unstuck halfway, there
was, therefore, nothing left but to opt for another election.
It may have been more profitable for the Government to implement the strategy of allowing
the Opposition to continue its weak administration rather than to test public opinion at an
election. Even though the Opposition was in power, their power was restricted to only one
vote, and therefore could not operate with any degree of self-confidence. Because there was
only one extra vote, every individual received an undue prominence, and this special
importance resulted in in-fighting over portfolios, privileges and powers.
Their objective was only to hang on to their weakened power by hook or by crook, and not to
place their faith in the people through the electoral process. The Government’s forcing of
provincial council elections is, therefore, doing for the Opposition what it should have done
itself. If, through the fresh election, the Opposition is able to form a strong provincial
government, then they are not merely replacing an emasculated administration with a powerful one, but the defeat inflicted on the Government will in turn, undoubtedly, influence the other elections scheduled for the near future.
Despite the fact that the Opposition had only one more vote in the Provincial Council, the
coalition of the two opposition groups had as many as 61,106 more votes than the UNP in the
province. By virtue of the fact that the UNP was the single party with the most votes, it was able to secure the two bonus seats on the council. Therefore, had the People’s Alliance and the DUNF contested the election as one unit, the coalition would have received the two bonus seats and thereby been ahead not by one seat but by as many as five. Whichever way you look at it, it is clear that with two major elections ahead, the Government is engaged in a dangerous political gamble for control of the Southern Provincial Council. Though it possesses state power and though as a party it can be extremely powerful, there can be no denying the fact that on this occasion the UNP has been forced to act in a thoroughly unfavourable political arena. From every perspective the South was and is a major fortress of anti-government forces. With the exception of the parliamentary elections held immediately after the 1988 presidential election, no vote held since 1982 has resulted in the UNP receiving 50% of the total polled in this region. Even at the 1982 presidential election, held at a time when the UNP was considered to be at the height of its power, the party was able to obtain only 49.09% of the vote. Thereafter this figure had systematically declined to 45%, and it rose to 46% only at the last provincial council elections.
Even though the Government may have thought that the 12.18% polled by the DUNF at the last election will be added to the UNP pile with the crossing over of Gamini Dissanayake, this remains an unlikely scenario. From a comparison of the voting patterns of the last provincial council elections with previous elections, it is not difficult to see that in the Southern Province the DUNF has obtained less of the pure UNP vote than of the anti-government vote which would have otherwise gone to the Alliance. Though there is no clear reduction in the UNP vote discernible in the South, a decline in the support for the SLFP and the other left parties is visible. It is clear that these voters preferred the “eagle” to the “chair” in the hope that the DUNF would provide a more courageous leadership than the People’s Alliance, whose effete policies and unending internal conflicts had disillusioned them. Moreover, despite Gamini Dissanayake’s joining the Government, five out of the six provincial council members from his party have opted to contest with the People’s Alliance. This further establishes that Gamini’s defection will not exert a substantial benefit to the Government at the Southern elections.
If the Alliance is successful in engendering a fundamental improvement in Hambantota — the
district that produced the weakest result for them at the previous provincial council election —
then, in whatever form the Government were to wield its power, it cannot defeat the Alliance.
The polling record of the Alliance in Hambantota at the last provincial council election is,
indeed, very unsatisfactory. At the 1981 PC polls the SLFP itself was able to register 46% of the vote in this district, whereas in 1993 the entire Alliance was only able to record 30.98%. The weakness of the candidate list as well as the regressive and negative policies followed by some of the forces within the Alliance, no doubt, contributed to this situation. However, the list of People’s Alliance candidates nominated for Hambantota on this occasion appears to be very strong, and an easy victory in this district can be predicted. This means that the Opposition has the opportunity to create a more powerful government in the area through the Southern Provincial Council elections.
1993 Southern Province Election Summary
In the 1993 Provincial Council Elections for the Southern Province, there were 1,439,283 registered voters across three districts: Galle, Matara, and Hambantota. The UNP secured the majority of the valid votes in the province with 438,412 votes (45.76%), followed by the PA with 382,736 votes (39.91%), and the DUNF with 116,791 votes (12.81%). Smaller factions included Independent groups with 13,420 votes (1.39%) and the NSSP with 7,194 votes (0.75%). Looking at district-level breakdowns, Galle had the highest voter turnout with 453,587 total votes polled (73.56%), where the UNP narrowly led the PA (44.32% to 44%). In Matara, out of 345,464 total votes cast (70% turnout), the UNP captured 44.99% against the PA’s 40.22%. Hambantota saw a 69.24% turnout with 224,089 total votes, handing a more decisive lead to the UNP with 49.85% compared to the PA’s 30.98%. Overall, the province recorded 958,543 valid votes and 68,597 rejected votes, bringing the total number of votes polled to 1,027,140.