The Government will certainly not be able to get a two thirds majority at a Parliamentary general election. The Government will be able to get that number of seats, if at all, only by enacting a law permitting cross overs and then holding a referendum.
Even if the PA Government at the coming parliamentary election, is able to get the same number of seats as it got at the presidential election which is alleged to have been extremely corrupt, all the parties in the PA and the other parties associated with it (like the EPDP and the CWC) will be able to get 115 seats at the maximum. It is less than what the PA and its allies have in the present parliament. The PA and all the parties associated with it including the UNP’s alternative group have 131 seats. It is improbable that a Government which has 131 seats will opt to have that number brought down to 115. So the PA will have to adopt a new system of elections which will be advantageous to it or, in the alternative, go in for a referendum.
The contempt that the parties of the PA had for J.R. Jayewardene’s anti-democratic action in extending the term of Parliament through a referendum appears now to have gained respect. A parliamentary election could of course be the answer. There are those who think they can win and those who think it will be difficult to win. There is also the risk of humiliation.
Above all, there is also the factor of election expenses. If there is a possibility of extending the life of parliament by six years, which will eliminate all those risks, a majority of the MPs, irrespective of their party differences, will like it. Political theorists of the PA who made profound analyses of the distortion caused in the politics of Sri Lanka by J.R. Jayewardene’s referendum and the blood letting which followed have now forgotten what they themselves had said.
J.R. Jayewardene won the presidential election of ‘82 easily. He also had the possibility of winning a majority of the parliamentary seats too if he were to hold a parliamentary election. But such an election could have led to the emergence of a strong parliamentary opposition too. But he did not want to give up the five fifth majority he had in parliament and to permit the emergence of a powerful parliamentary opposition. The referendum may have served his narrow political ends but created a great distortion in the democratic political system. It pushed the JVP, which had entered the democratic political system, to take up arms. When there was no proportionate representations in Parliament for those who opposed the Government, they turned to acting against it in hatred. The final outcome was an endless flow of blood.
Now Chandrika too is trying to take the country to the same old position. A referendum will have the worst effect on the JVP which has now turned away from politics of violence and taken the path of democratic politics. In spite of the criticism leveled against it about its past violence, the JVP was proving it was able to join the democratic political process. It faced the Government’s violent attacks in a democratic manner and contested three elections. With the results of those elections it ensured some representation for itself. If, at a time when the JVP is thinking of parliamentary elections, the Government is going to substitute a referendum for an election, that will certainly earn the JVP’s hatred.
For 10744 votes it polled in the Jaffna district the EPDP has got nine parliamentary seats. Thus a party which polled 10744 has 4% of the entire membership of parliament. But the TULF which polled 132401 votes has only 2% of the parliamentary seats. This is a serious distortion of minority representation. A future parliamentary election would severely change this picture. However, a referendum will prevent such a change.
Although the abolition of the executive presidency was the main slogan of the PA, the Government position now appears to be to continue with the executive presidential system in a modified form, although the UNP has declared it would support the Government’s draft constitution. Earlier the President had said although she wanted to abolish the executive presidential system, she had to continue with the ludicrous system because the UNP was not ready to help her to abolish it. But when the UNP is ready to help her to abolish the executive presidential system she comes out with a different story. The Government always says the devolution of power is essential to solve the ethnic problem. But there cannot be any effective devolution when unlimited power is concentrated on an individual. Unfortunately even the parties representing the minorities do not appear to have properly grasped that contradiction. The ethnic crisis is also a major part of the crisis of democracy in the country. It would be a mistake to think there can be a reasonable solution to the ethnic problem in a system where a great percent of power is concentrated in the hands of a single individual, rather than in a political system where democratic freedom is enhanced.