Who will win at the coming Presidential election has be- come a topic of hot debate. One of the main arguments put forward by the JVP prior to the Parliamentary election of 2004 was that if the SLFP had contested the Parliamen- tary election of 2001 in alliance with the JVP, that alliance, rather than the UNP, would have won. Their calcula- tion in that respect was correct.
At that election, the UNP contest- ed in alliance with the SLMC and the CWC. That alliance polled 4,086,026 votes. The SLMC contested in alliance with the UNP, but contested alone in some areas. The number of votes it polled where it contested alone was 105,346. The total number of votes the UNP-led party alliance received at that election was 4,191,370.
However at that election, the SLFP, contesting alone, obtained 3,330,815 votes while the JVP got 815,353 votes and the EPDP was able to get 72,783. The combined vote of all those three parties was 4,218,951. Thus those three parties together had been able to get 27,579 more votes than the UNP-led party alliance.
On that premise, those three parties contested the parliamentary election of 2004 as a single alliance and obtained a total of 4,223,970 votes. Although that alliance was able to defeat the UNP and get a majority of seats in parliament, it was unable to obtain an absolute majority. The number of seats that the alliance got was 108.
These three parties as an alliance in 2004 were able to get only 5,019 more votes than the total they had polled in 2001, contesting separately. (4,223,970-4,218,951 = 5,010).
However, while the alliance got 4,223,970 votes at that election, the combined opposition (UNP, Tamil Alliance, Hela Urumaya and SLMC) obtained a total of 4,927,182 votes. Thus the opposition had been able to get seven lakhs of votes more than the alliance. When the government party alliance had got 46.04% of the vote, the opposition had got 53.96% of the vote.
A presidential election is not similar to a parliamentary election. A parliamentary election is contested by a large number of parties, and a district is considered to be a single constituency. However, while a Presidential election is always a contest between two main contenders, the constitu- ency is the whole country. The winner must always get more than 50% of the votes cast. If it is presumed that the total number of votes cast is 9,157,152, the minimum number of votes that the winner should get is 4,575,576. That is to say he will have to get 351,606 more votes than at the last general election.
The minorities prefer the Presi- dential system because, unlike at a Parliamentary election, they can intervene decisively and effectively at a Presidential election. At a time when the votes of the Sinhalese are di- vided between the two main political parties, the minorities will have the power to elect a person of sensitivity as the head of state.
It is important to inquire into whether it is possible to win a Presi- dential election with the votes of the Sinhalese only, because the Sinhalese are one community only. The Sinhala ratio of the population is 74%. That of the Tamils is slightly higher than 18%. The ratio of the Muslims is 7%. If the number of valid votes cast (in 2004) is considered to be 9,157,152, then the Sinhalese portion of it can be reckoned at 6,771,852, and that of the Tamils and the Muslims can be considered to be 2,196,276.
There are minorities among the Sinhalese too. They are divided by caste and religion. If classified by religion, the non-Buddhist percent- age among the Sinhalese is 10%. That means that the number of the Sinhalese Buddhist votes is 6,094,667.
If a Presidential election is to be won by the Sinhalese Buddhist vote alone, then that candidate will have to get 75% of the Sinhalese Buddhist vote. It amounts to 4,575,377 votes. That means a candidate who wants to win on the Sinhalese Buddhist vote alone will have to get 75% of all the Sinhalese Buddhist votes. It cannot be considered a simple or easily attainable target.