When the Alliance was able to enlist the support of Thondaman’s Ceylon Workers’ Congress (CWC), the government was able to solve its problem of the lack of a majority in parliament, which was one of the challenges it had faced.
In the complex political environment that was there in Sri Lanka, getting the CWC with its eight MPs to join the government helped overcome one of the most difficult hurdles that the Alliance Government faced. With the three MPs who have joined the government from the SLMC and the monk who has joined from the JHU, the number of MPs with the ruling party now totals 118.
While that figure is sufficient for the purpose of continuing with the government, it is inadequate to fulfill the aim that the President has in mind. She will be able to prevent her own invalidation, as she desires, only if she will be able to add 32 more to the number.
Although it is a very difficult task, she appears to be determined to get over it. She has the courage and the skill required for achieving and retaining power. She had already overcome two difficult hurdles.
Disregarding accepted traditions and the promise that she herself had given the Speaker, the President dissolved the parliament in which the UNP had a majority, held an election and defeated the UNP. Although it was a dangerous gamble in which her own political survival was at stake, she won. For that purpose she had entered into an alliance with the JVP, risking the future existence of her own party.
The leader of the opposition was in a world of his dreams. He was unable to foresee what eventually happened and he also failed to face skillfully the challenge that came in consequence.
Although she failed to muster a majority at the parliamentary election, she succeeded in getting a majority in parliament a long time after the election and before the budget.
The biggest challenge before her now is to avoid her own invalidation, by changing the system or without it. Due to time constraints, she will be able to achieve her aim only if she manages to increase the majority she has now to a two-thirds majority at whatever cost. Although it can be an extremely difficult task, she appears to be determined to achieve that aim.
There are two alternatives before her to avoid her own invalidation. One of them is to abolish the executive presidential system. The other is to reform the system so that her invalidation could be prevented. Although her preference, according to what she says, is the abolition of the executive presidential system, she appears to prefer the second option. That is to reform the executive presidential system in such a way as to enable an incumbent to stay in office for three terms.
She has a number of arguments to justify such an option. She can say that although she does not like the executive presidential system, in spite of her dislike, she has to continue with it because the minority communities are firmly opposed to changing the system. She would be able to say that [the] decision had to be taken, reluctantly on her part, because there was no candidate acceptable to all parties and because the program of the country before all as well as the Alliance Government had to be carried forward. She can tell the SLFPers that she did it to prevent a fragmentation of the party. Although it might be difficult to please the JVP, they can be promised greater power in parliament and in government.
However she would be able to fulfill all these aims only if, in violation of the promise she gave the country at the elections and, in addition to holding discussions with the LTTE on the ISGA that they have put forward, she will also go far enough to satisfy Prabhakaran.
In facing this difficult challenge, the numbers in the parliament are of greater importance to her than the people. If she can satisfy Prabhakaran she will be able to get the support of the 22 MPs of the TNA. That will convert the 118 into 140. Then she will need the support of only ten UNP MPs for a two-thirds majority.
However the biggest problem will be pleasing Prabhakaran and Wimal Weerawansa at the same time. If she succeeds in solving that problem, she will also be able to achieve the most difficult of her aims. However if that does not happen, the beneficiary will be Ranil Wickremesinghe, not due to his skill or to his perseverance, but due to other reasons. However, he expects to get that opportunity in the same way as Anura Bandaranaike expects to become the next President.